Arena Matchmaking System FAQ
by Aratil | 05/02/2009 19:07:14![]() Why am I 1300 when my record is 50/50? 70/30? Let’s turn the question around first. Why is my record 50/50? If your record is 50/50, that means your match-making rating (MMR) is almost exactly correct for you. It means we are finding teams that as near as possible match the ability of your team. It means that you are being matched as fairly as possible. If we matched 1300 teams at 1500 instead, they would only win 30% of their matches. We would rather those teams win half their matches. But I’m 70/30, what about that? If you are 70/30 and we think you are 1300, your MMR will climb to roughly 1533. You will then be matched with 1500+ teams, and your record should decrease to 50/50. Yeah, so why is my rating still going down then? The team rating will drop until it reaches the average match-making rating of the teams you beat 50% of the time. For example, if we are matching you against 1200-rated teams, and you are winning half the time, it will drop to 1200. If you are winning 70% of the time against 1200-rated teams, then your MMR and TR should move up to 1433. But I’m not matching 1200-rated teams, I looked these teams up and most are near 1500. It is likely that those teams have an MMR of 1200, even though their TR is 1500. This means that even though they look like 1500 or 1400-rated teams, they have been playing more like 1200-rated teams this season. No matter what I do, my rating dives to 1300 If your team rating keeps diving to 1300 while you win 50% of your matches, then you are winning matches against 1300 players. Being 1300 means: -- You go 50/50 vs 1300 teams -- You are better than 25% of all teams It means that the teams we are matching you against have average MMRs well under 1500. How will I get to 1650? -- The definition of a 1650 team in both the new and old system is “Better than 68% of all teams on this BG in this bracket” -- To be 1650, your team needs to be better than 68% of all teams -- This means you will beat a team with an MMR of 1500 63 out of 100 matches, and go 50/50 vs. a team with an MMR of 1650 Wait, why 63%? Shouldn’t it be 68% then? -- Smart question! The reason it’s not 68% is because a 1650-rated team does not always perform exactly at 1650. We take this into account. But I’m stuck at 1300, I never get to play those higher-rated teams: -- A 1650 player will win about 4 of 5 matches against a 1300 player -- If you are at 1300 but belong at 1650, you should be winning 4 of every 5 matches -- If you do that, your MMR will go up steadily, and you will face harder and harder opponents -- Once you move your MMR to 1650, your TR will follow How long will this take? -- This depends on how much evidence we have that you *were* a 1300 team -- If your team *Really* is a 1650 team, average case is 40 games -- But it can go higher and lower. Great luck = 16, Terrible luck = 150 I guess that’s correct theoretically, but it’s very discouraging: We do believe that we can improve the experience for teams that start at 1500 and go down from there. However, the changes we prefer merit waiting for the next arena season. [ Post edited by Aratil ] |
by Kalgan | 05/02/2009 20:17:39![]()
You are by no means pigeonholed in the 1300's, it simply means that to rise to 1600 you'll have to be able to beat 1600 teams half the time. As stated above, if you're still 1300 it's because you're still losing to 1300 teams half the time, which kind of means you really should be at 1300, not because a rating system is keeping you there out of spite. |
by Kalgan | 05/02/2009 20:43:18![]()
Completely legitimate gripe imo. Players in the 1300-1550 range definitely need more access to hateful quality gear, I can totally understand why you would be out of incentives to gain more points. |
by Kalgan | 05/02/2009 20:46:34![]()
/agree |
by Kalgan | 05/02/2009 21:00:27![]()
There will be changes made before 3.1. |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 04:15:10![]()
Shadoweric, to try to clarify what was happening under the hood here's a report of the games your team played. My following post comments as to what was going on with the system (it's too long to all post in this one). For reference, TR is your team's rating, MMR is your team's matchmaking rating (the "hidden rating"), OMMR is the opposing team's matchmaking "hidden" rating, TRC is your team rating change, MMRC is your team's average matchmaking rating change. CREATED_TIME TR MMR RESULT OMMR TRC MMRC [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 04:15:20![]() Comments on the results... - Your team started with the system believing that your skill as a team was around 1350, but with a low degree of confidence in that number because the system was new. Your team lost versus a team we believed to be of around 1378 skill, so the system starts trying to aggressively lower the quality of your opponents to see if you do better (the lack of confidence the system had in your rating is why it is changing your MMR quickly at ths point). - Your team continued to lose versus teams we believed to be around 1240 rating, 1093 rating, 1313 rating, 1154 rating, and even 928 rating. That's six losses in a row to teams far below your team's currently displayed rating, your currently displayed rating of 1311 is pretty high considering the teams you're losing to and the game believes you are probably not 1311 skill. - You win your first game, versus a team the game believes to be about 842 rating (as seen in their MMR above). Your team only gains 1 team rating, because after all your team's visible rating is already 1311, and this win was merely versus a 842 skill team. Your matchmaking rating goes up by 40 points though, as the game thinking there's definitely a chance you're better than 900 rating. - You win 3 more in a row, versus teams the game believes to be of about 923, 689, and 1109 rating. Your matchmaking rating is going up meaningfully, but since these teams are rated so far below your team's rating, you aren't gaining much for it. - You lose 3 in a row after this against teams of 1166, 957, and 1133 quality. These teams are significantly below your team rating, and the system is gaining confidence that your current skill is not 1300+, so it's moving you toward around a 1005 rating (this is why you're losing a lot of team rating for your losses)... the system is pretty confident based on who you're beating versus who you're losing to that you're overrated at your 1200+ rating. - Your team wins a few versus teams of 932 and 1004 rating, teams we expect you to beat close to 50% of the time now, so the game is matching you against opponents that are probably close to your skill, but unfortunately your team rating is way higher than that already, so you aren't gaining much TR for the wins (no surprise). - Your team loses 4 more games versus teams of around 1000 rating, indicating that maybe 1000 rating is even possibly too high, your team rating keeps moving below 1200 on it's way to around 900 pretty quickly (losing between 17 to 24 team rating per game). - You win, lose, win versus teams of about 1050 average matchmaking rating. You're going about 50/50 versus teams that the game thinks is about your rating (1000 or so), so your team rating continues to move toward that. As explained in the FAQ's, your team rating is moving toward a rating where you beat opponents about 50% of the time. To remain at the 1434 rating your team started at, you would have had to have been winning 50% of your games versus teams that were significantly more successful. As some of you might see, the matchmaking rating actually adapts very quickly. By no means are you pigeonholed at a rating, it adapts more quickly in many respects than a traditional Elo system. However, you do have to be able to beat teams of a given rating about 50% of the time in order to get your team rating to a given level. BTW, hopefully in the process of copy/pasting data and trying to get the formatting right I didn't mess up any of the data. [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 04:48:57![]()
Part of the point of the responses I've been making are to try to illustrate a belief I have that many people are associating their lack of fun with the new math behind the rating system. I totally believe that Shadoweric (and players in similar situations) are not having fun, but not because of the math behind the new system that finds equivalent opponents for their team, but for two other reasons. 1. Teams that are below 1500 in terms of their effectiveness in arenas feel crappy because the rating they start a team with is as high a rating they'll see in a long time (until they improve, or possibly ever). Bunk. 2. Gear that most players consider to be worth their time (including the players below 1500 rating) have requirements that are too harsh relative to how hard it is to get "good" gear through other parts of the game (including by buying hateful gladiator gear for emblems). Those two problems are solve-able, and we plan to solve them, but the problems/solutions really have nothing to do with the new fancy math itself. |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 04:54:13![]()
Honestly, that appears to be the opposite of what's going on. The system is zeroing in on teams that they go 50/50 against. That's a good thing. Unfortunately for their team, the teams they've been going 50/50 against are way below their team rating, so when they win they don't go up much and when they lose they go down a lot. |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 06:41:14![]()
That's what we plan to do, along with revising rating requirements and a few other tweaks. |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 10:43:49![]()
There's still plenty of room for some items to be pretty hard to get without causing most players to be left out of good gear. As I mentioned earlier, with the start of the next season we expect new teams and personal ratings to start much lower than they have before (not 1500). That way, everyone's experience is to climb toward the rating they're successfully playing at. So, knowing that, here's what our current thinking is on rating requirements for season 6. Disclaimer: all of this is subject to change! Other notes/caveats: - items with no rating listed would have no rating requirement - it won't be quite as easy to get deadly items via emblems of conquest as hateful items currently are via emblems of valor - the new Archavon boss (a new boss located in another wing of the Vault of Archavon), will have slightly different drops than the current Archavon (he can drop Furious Gloves/Legs, or any possible random honor item in addition to tier 8 pve set items similar to Archavon's t7 pve set drops, but cannot drop the Furious Chest piece) - honor/arena costs aren't listed but Hateful costs would be similar to current Savage, Deadly costs similar to current Hateful, and Furious costs would be similar to current Deadly - you might note that the Furious weapon is still at a high requirement, 2k, the thinking being that most players are encouraged to get their weapon upgrade through pve, although hardcore arena competitors have an outlet to get an equivalent weapon through arenas (if you're hardcore enough for 2k, you can forego raiding for a weapon) - additional note, "deadly trinket" refers to the current battlemaster's trinkets, "furious trinket" refers to an upgraded medallion of the alliance/horde Hateful Gloves Hateful Legs Hateful Chest Hateful Helm Hateful Shoulders Hateful Ring Hateful Trinket Deadly Bracer Deadly Belt Deadly Boots Deadly Neck Deadly Ring Deadly Cape Deadly Trinket 1300+: Deadly Relics/Idols/Librams/Totems 1350+: Deadly Gloves 1400+: Deadly Legs 1450+: Deadly Chest 1500+: Deadly Helm 1550+: Deadly Shoulders 1400+: Furious Bracer (honor) 1450+: Furious Belt (honor) 1500+: Furious Boots (honor) 1550+: Furious Neck (honor) 1600+: Furious Gloves 1650+: Furious Ring (honor) 1700+: Furious Legs 1750+: Furious Chest 1800+: Furious Trinket (honor) 1850+: Furious Helm 1900+: Furious Cape (honor) 1950+: Furious Wands/Relics/etc 2000+: Furious Weapon 2100+: Furious Shoulders 2300+: Furious Tabard (purely cosmetic and awesome looking) [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 10:57:20![]()
My pleasure. =] |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 11:04:09![]()
We plan to stop with that naming convention somewhere right before "foo jackin' gladiator". |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 11:07:58![]()
Not too shabby of an idea there... |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 11:11:52![]()
Hmm, I think I'll go back and bold some stuff at the beginning of what I wrote. =] |
by Kalgan | 06/02/2009 19:08:08![]()
Well, 1500 is still average in the new system in terms of "half the teams are more successful than one at 1500, and half the teams are less successful". 1500 has never been defined as winning half your games, even under the old system. |
by Kalgan | 07/02/2009 03:23:35![]() To quickly answer a few common questions that aren't already answered... Q: How good will the furious weapons be? Why would I want one if the PvE weapons are better? A: In the case of the current deadly gladiator weapons, we simply botched the ilvls since at the time of their design we didn't account properly for the fact that Kel'Thuzad weapons would be as accessible as they are. Had we anticipated this better, the KT weapons wouldn't have been a full tier ahead of pre-KT weapons, and the deadly weapons would have been equivalent in ilvl. We expect that the best season 6 pvp weapons obtainable will be equal in level/quality to the best Ulduar weapons, even if that means we need more than one tier of pvp weapon to do it (ie: a 1750 weapon and a 2200 weapon). Note: the whole trick here is reasonably balancing what percentage of players get raid weapons of X quality versus what percentage of arena players also get a weapon of X quality. Q: Why is the hidden rating hidden? A: At some point, we'll probably expose the hidden rating and the calculations behind the MMR and such (although possibly only on the website rather than in game). We didn't expose the hidden rating in game because we felt it would be too confusing to see a 3rd rating, particularly considering players don't need to make any decisions based on it. You play the same opponents you would play whether you see the rating or not, and it isn't necessary to know the rating to be able to get points, buy gear, etc. However, I'm certainly open to at the very least showing the MMR of a team you just played against on the scoreboard, so that you can make more sense of why you gained/lost as much rating as you did, and at the very least showing your team's MMR on the armory. Exactly what patch/timeframe that might happen in, I'm not entirely sure. [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 07/02/2009 04:05:42![]()
There's a separate MMR for each bracket (2v2, 3v3, 5v5). |
by Kalgan | 07/02/2009 10:44:57![]()
Honestly, the fallacy that arenas are more about gear is getting a little old. From the best we can possibly and objectively tell, it is clear beyond any shadow of a doubt that skill is far and away the #1 factor in determining arena success, regardless of gear. You can put 2200+ players in the blue level 80 gear and they'll still convincingly trounce 1500 skill teams decked out in the best available gear in the game, by a clear and obvious margin. While it is of course an advantage to have good gear, I assure you that highly skilled players have no trouble taking newly geared alts and "powering them up" to fully geared deadly gladiator gear in a relatively short amount of time. I believe that belittling that by declaring that arenas require people to already have good gear in order to advance is unfair to the significant number of players that reach level 80 and advance their ladder position consistently regardless of this disadvantage. [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 07/02/2009 11:26:19![]()
The Archavon bingo is simply a lottery on top of gear that is available purely through successful play. It is by no means a requirement to success, so we think of it more as an entertaining lottery on top of a non-rng based system. So, in other words, Archavon isn't making or breaking anyone's chances at success in arenas. [ Post edited by Kalgan ] |
by Kalgan | 08/02/2009 01:54:29![]()
We have had this thing called the tournament realm, where all competitors had access to exactly the same template characters and character class choices. By no surprise, the same players that tend to top the ladders on their respective battlegroups were at the top of the pile in the tournament realm. Skill > comp/gear, it's that simple. A team's skill in the arena is capable of causing a shift of well over a thousand rating points, gear and class choice don't cause anywhere near that kind of shift. Even anecdotally, at Blizzcon 2008 everyone watched as the world champion team chose a comp of warrior/warrior/mage (iirc)... a rock-bottom "worthless" comp by anyone' estimation (not to mention one they aren't even used to playing) and dominated a team of above-average players using a reasonable comp. So again, while both gear and comp absolutely affect a team's rating, the point is that the effect of skill on one's rating is far more significant than the effect of gear/comp. This of course doesn't change the fact that arenas should be fun for most players, that there should be compelling rewards for the vast majority of players to progress toward, it's merely to state that if a player were looking to improve their rating, the best thing they can possibly do is improve how well they're playing as a team, and let gear/comp act as a meaningful bonus on top of that. |


Recent Blizzard Announcements